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Modeling Stock Return Distributions and Pricing Options

Published: March 11, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2503.08666v1

By: Xinxin Jiang

Potential Business Impact:

Predicts stock prices better using math tricks.

Business Areas:
Prediction Markets Financial Services

This paper provides evidence that stock returns, after truncation, might be modeled by a special type of continuous mixtures or normals, so-called $q$-Gaussians. Negative binomial distributions might model the counts for extreme returns. A generalized jump-diffusion model is proposed, and an explicit option pricing formula is obtained.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 United States

Page Count
13 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Mathematical Finance