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Economic Impact of China's Retaliatory Soybean Tariff on U.S. Soybean Farmers

Published: March 13, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2503.10715v1

By: Xinyu Li

Potential Business Impact:

Tariffs hurt farmers' incomes and sales.

Business Areas:
Farming Agriculture and Farming

This paper analyzes the economic impact of China's retaliatory soybean tariff on U.S. soybean farmers using advanced econometric methods and comprehensive datasets including USDA reports, trade data, and historical price movements. The analysis employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, revealing the impacts of China's retaliatory tariff on soybean prices, exports, farm incomes, and acreage decisions. U.S. policy responses, including direct subsidies and market diversification strategies, are also evaluated.

Page Count
15 pages

Category
Economics:
General Economics