Bayesian Teaching Enables Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models

Artificial intelligence systems based on large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as agents that interact with users and with the world. To do so successfully, LLMs need to construct internal representations of the world and form probabilistic beliefs about those representations. To provide a user with personalized recommendations, for example, the LLM needs to gradually infer the user's preferences, over the course of multiple interactions. To evaluate whether contemporary LLMs are able to do so, we use the Bayesian inference framework from probability theory, which lays out the optimal way to update an agent's beliefs as it receives new information. We first show that the LLMs do not update their beliefs as expected from the Bayesian framework, and that consequently their predictions do not improve as expected as more information becomes available, even less so than we find is the case for humans. To address this issue, we teach the LLMs to reason in a Bayesian manner by training them to mimic the predictions of an optimal Bayesian model. We find that this approach not only significantly improves the LLM's performance on the particular recommendation task it is trained on, but also enables generalization to other tasks. This suggests that this method endows the LLM with broader Bayesian reasoning skills. More generally, our results indicate that LLMs can learn about reasoning strategies effectively and generalize those skills to new domains, which in part explains LLMs' empirical success.