Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation
By: Kartik Waghmare, Johanna Ziegel
Potential Business Impact:
Helps computers guess better and learn more.
Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.
Similar Papers
Aligned Textual Scoring Rules
Artificial Intelligence
Makes AI understand what people like in writing.
Conditional Forecasts and Proper Scoring Rules for Reliable and Accurate Performative Predictions
Statistics Theory
Makes predictions that don't change what happens.
Asymmetric Penalties Underlie Proper Loss Functions in Probabilistic Forecasting
Statistics Theory
Makes predictions more accurate by fixing unfair scoring.