Optimal promotions of new products on networks
By: Gadi Fibich, Amit Golan
Potential Business Impact:
Helps companies sell more by timing ads better.
We present a novel methodology for analyzing the optimal promotion in the Bass model for the spreading of new products on networks. For general networks with $M$ nodes, the optimal promotion is the solution of $2^M-1$ nonlinearly-coupled boundary-value problems. On structured networks, however, the number of equations can be reduced to a manageable size which is amendable to simulations and analysis. This enables us to gain insight into the effect of the network structure on optimal promotions. We find that the optimal advertising strategy decreases with time, whereas the optimal boosting of peer effects increases from zero and then decreases. In low-degree networks, it is optimal to prioritize advertising over boosting peer effects, but this relation is flipped in high-degree networks. When the planning horizon is finite, the optimal promotion continues until the last minute, as opposed to an infinite planning horizon where the optimal promotion decays to zero. Finally, promotions with short planning horizons can yield an order of magnitude higher increase of profits, compared to those with long planning horizons.
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