An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression
By: Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr and more
Potential Business Impact:
Makes computer predictions more trustworthy and honest.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this work, we introduce a set of axioms to rigorously assess measures of aleatoric, epistemic, and total uncertainty in supervised regression. By utilizing a predictive exponential family, we can generalize commonly used approaches for uncertainty representation and corresponding uncertainty measures. More specifically, we analyze the widely used entropy- and variance-based measures regarding limitations and challenges. Our findings provide a principled foundation for uncertainty quantification in regression, offering theoretical insights and practical guidelines for reliable uncertainty assessment.
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