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Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted,Prediction-Powered Inference

Published: May 23, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2505.18000v1

By: Valentin Kilian, Stefano Cortinovis, François Caron

Potential Business Impact:

Uses predictions to make data analysis more accurate.

Business Areas:
Predictive Analytics Artificial Intelligence, Data and Analytics, Software

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of standard confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving their fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Country of Origin
🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Page Count
43 pages

Category
Statistics:
Machine Learning (Stat)