Indoor thermal comfort management: A Bayesian machine-learning approach to data denoising and dynamics prediction of HVAC systems

The optimal management of a building's microclimate to satisfy the occupants' needs and objectives in terms of comfort, energy efficiency, and costs is particularly challenging. This complexity arises from the non-linear, time-dependent interactions among all the variables of the control problem and the changing internal and external constraints. Focusing on the accurate modeling of the indoor temperature, we propose a data-driven approach to address this challenge. We account for thermal inertia, non-linear effects, small perturbations of the indoor climate dynamics caused by ventilation and weather variations, as well as for the stochastic nature of the control system due to the observed noise in the input signal. Since the prohibitive cost of quality data acquisition and processing limits the implementation of data-driven approaches for real-life problems, we applied a method that merges several Bayesian machine learning and deep learning architectures that are suitable for predicting complex system dynamics, while relaxing the dataset quality requirements. Our framework includes a built-in deep Kalman filter, which makes it deployable even with low-accuracy temperature sensors. It achieves state-of-the-art performance, best performing with a 150-minute prediction horizon with an RMSE of 0.2455, an MAE of 0.162, and an $R^2$ of 0.926. The model's performance remains consistent even when exposed to highly noisy data. Finally, we show how our approach can be extended to other applications including demand response event duration prediction and equipment failure detection.