Functionally Generated Portfolios Under Stochastic Transaction Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence
By: Nader Karimi, Erfan Salavati
Potential Business Impact:
Helps investors make more money even with trading costs.
Assuming frictionless trading, classical stochastic portfolio theory (SPT) provides relative arbitrage strategies. However, the costs associated with real-world execution are state-dependent, volatile, and under increasing stress during liquidity shocks. Using an Ito diffusion that may be connected with asset prices, we extend SPT to a continuous-time equity market with proportional, stochastic transaction costs. We derive closed-form lower bounds on cost-adjusted relative wealth for a large class of functionally generated portfolios; these bounds provide sufficient conditions for relative arbitrage to survive random costs. A limit-order-book cost proxy in conjunction with a Milstein scheme validates the theoretical order-of-magnitude estimates. Finally, we use intraday bid-ask spreads as a stand-in for cost volatility in a back-test of CRSP small-cap data (1994--2024). Despite experiencing larger declines during the 2008 and 2020 liquidity crises, diversity- and entropy-weighted portfolios continue to beat the value-weighted benchmark by 3.6 and 2.9 percentage points annually, respectively, after cost deduction.
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