Understanding Demand for Shared Autonomous Micro-Mobility

This study examines the behavioral and environmental implications of shared autonomous micro-mobility systems, focusing on autonomous bicycles and their integration with transit in the U.S. While prior research has addressed operational and lifecycle aspects, a critical gap remains in understanding which modes these services are likely to substitute, who is most inclined to adopt them, and how service attributes influence user decisions. We design a context-aware stated preference survey grounded in real-world trips and estimate discrete choice models, including a hybrid model incorporating latent attitudes. Findings indicate that adoption, mode shift, and environmental impacts are highly sensitive to service design. Scenarios with minimal wait and cost yield high adoption but increase emissions, while moderate waits are more likely to reduce impacts. Adoption likelihood varies with demographic characteristics, and outcomes depend on city type, context, and infrastructure assumptions. These insights can inform the development of more sustainable and equitable mobility systems.