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Unified Flow Matching for Long Horizon Event Forecasting

Published: August 6, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2508.04843v1

By: Xiao Shou

Potential Business Impact:

Predicts future events more accurately and faster.

Modeling long horizon marked event sequences is a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications, including healthcare, finance, and user behavior modeling. Existing neural temporal point process models are typically autoregressive, predicting the next event one step at a time, which limits their efficiency and leads to error accumulation in long-range forecasting. In this work, we propose a unified flow matching framework for marked temporal point processes that enables non-autoregressive, joint modeling of inter-event times and event types, via continuous and discrete flow matching. By learning continuous-time flows for both components, our method generates coherent long horizon event trajectories without sequential decoding. We evaluate our model on six real-world benchmarks and demonstrate significant improvements over autoregressive and diffusion-based baselines in both accuracy and generation efficiency.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 United States

Page Count
9 pages

Category
Computer Science:
Machine Learning (CS)