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Stochastic dynamics learning with state-space systems

Published: August 11, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2508.07876v1

By: Juan-Pablo Ortega, Florian Rossmannek

Potential Business Impact:

Makes computers remember past information better.

This work advances the theoretical foundations of reservoir computing (RC) by providing a unified treatment of fading memory and the echo state property (ESP) in both deterministic and stochastic settings. We investigate state-space systems, a central model class in time series learning, and establish that fading memory and solution stability hold generically -- even in the absence of the ESP -- offering a robust explanation for the empirical success of RC models without strict contractivity conditions. In the stochastic case, we critically assess stochastic echo states, proposing a novel distributional perspective rooted in attractor dynamics on the space of probability distributions, which leads to a rich and coherent theory. Our results extend and generalize previous work on non-autonomous dynamical systems, offering new insights into causality, stability, and memory in RC models. This lays the groundwork for reliable generative modeling of temporal data in both deterministic and stochastic regimes.

Page Count
30 pages

Category
Statistics:
Machine Learning (Stat)