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Pricing American Options Time-Capped by a Drawdown Event

Published: August 31, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2509.00999v1

By: Zbigniew Palmowski, Paweł Stȩpniak

Potential Business Impact:

Finds the best time to sell stocks before they drop.

Business Areas:
Prediction Markets Financial Services

This paper presents a derivation of the explicit price for the perpetual American put option in the Black-Scholes model, time-capped by the first drawdown epoch beyond a predefined level. We demonstrate that the optimal exercise strategy involves executing the option when the asset price first falls below a specified threshold. The proof relies on martingale arguments and the fluctuation theory of L\'evy processes. To complement the theoretical findings, we provide numerical analysis.

Page Count
16 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Mathematical Finance