RumorSphere: A Framework for Million-scale Agent-based Dynamic Simulation of Rumor Propagation

Rumor propagation modeling is critical for understanding the dynamics of misinformation spread. Previous models are either overly simplistic or static, making them ineffective for simulating real-world rumor dynamics. In this paper, leveraging the impressive human behavior imitation capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we present a novel dynamic and hierarchical social network simulation framework, which supports simulations with millions of agents. This simulator is used to explore the rumor dynamic in the real world. Experiments on real-world rumor propagation datasets reveal a strong alignment between simulated and real-world rumor dynamics, outperforming existing models with an average 64\% reduction in opinion bias. Our findings underscore the substantial potential of LLM-based multi-agent systems in social network simulations, offering critical insights for advancing social science research. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the tightly connected local community structure within social networks is one of the key factors promoting the rapid spread of rumors. In these communities, as rumors propagate to a certain extent, some individuals, influenced by ''social pressure'', are often compelled to conform, while holders of minority opinions are further silenced, resulting in a vicious cycle that accelerates rumor dissemination. Through counterfactual experiments, we evaluate various intervention strategies and demonstrate that early and sustained efforts to correct misinformation are more effective in mitigating the spread of rumors, while debunking rumors through opinion leaders proves to be the most effective strategy. These findings provide valuable insights for public opinion management and policymaking.