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On a surprising behavior of the likelihood ratio test in non-parametric mixture models

Published: September 6, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2509.05610v1

By: Yan Zhang, Stanislav Volgushev

Potential Business Impact:

Tests if data fits a simple or complex pattern.

Business Areas:
A/B Testing Data and Analytics

We study the likelihood ratio test in general mixture models where the base density is parametric, the null is a known fixed mixing distribution, and the alternative is a general mixing distribution supported on a bounded parameter space. For Gaussian location mixtures and Poisson mixtures, we show a surprising result: the non-parametric likelihood ratio test statistic converges to a tight limit if and only if the null distribution is a finite mixture, and diverges to infinity otherwise. We further demonstrate that the likelihood ratio test diverges for a fairly general class of distributions when the null mixing distribution is not finitely discrete.

Page Count
23 pages

Category
Mathematics:
Statistics Theory