Safe and Non-Conservative Contingency Planning for Autonomous Vehicles via Online Learning-Based Reachable Set Barriers

Autonomous vehicles must navigate dynamically uncertain environments while balancing the safety and driving efficiency. This challenge is exacerbated by the unpredictable nature of surrounding human-driven vehicles (HVs) and perception inaccuracies, which require planners to adapt to evolving uncertainties while maintaining safe trajectories. Overly conservative planners degrade driving efficiency, while deterministic approaches may encounter serious issues and risks of failure when faced with sudden and unexpected maneuvers. To address these issues, we propose a real-time contingency trajectory optimization framework in this paper. By employing event-triggered online learning of HV control-intent sets, our method dynamically quantifies multi-modal HV uncertainties and refines the forward reachable set (FRS) incrementally. Crucially, we enforce invariant safety through FRS-based barrier constraints that ensure safety without reliance on accurate trajectory prediction of HVs. These constraints are embedded in contingency trajectory optimization and solved efficiently through consensus alternative direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The system continuously adapts to the uncertainties in HV behaviors, preserving feasibility and safety without resorting to excessive conservatism. High-fidelity simulations on highway and urban scenarios, as well as a series of real-world experiments demonstrate significant improvements in driving efficiency and passenger comfort while maintaining safety under uncertainty. The project page is available at https://pathetiue.github.io/frscp.github.io/.