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Linking Path-Dependent and Stochastic Volatility Models

Published: October 2, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2510.02024v1

By: Samuel N. Cohen, Cephas Svosve

Potential Business Impact:

Makes stock price predictions more accurate.

Business Areas:
Prediction Markets Financial Services

We explore a link between stochastic volatility (SV) and path-dependent volatility (PDV) models. Using assumed density filtering, we map a given SV model into a corresponding PDV representation. The resulting specification is lightweight, improves in-sample fit, and delivers robust out-of-sample forecasts. We also introduce a calibration procedure for both SV and PDV models that produces standard errors for parameter estimates and supports joint calibration of SPX/VIX smile.

Country of Origin
🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Page Count
36 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Mathematical Finance