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Coherent estimation of risk measures

Published: October 7, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2510.05809v1

By: Martin Aichele , Igor Cialenco , Damian Jelito and more

Potential Business Impact:

Helps banks guess money risks better.

Business Areas:
Risk Management Professional Services

We develop a statistical framework for risk estimation, inspired by the axiomatic theory of risk measures. Coherent risk estimators -- functionals of P&L samples inheriting the economic properties of risk measures -- are defined and characterized through robust representations linked to $L$-estimators. The framework provides a canonical methodology for constructing estimators with sound financial and statistical properties, unifying risk measure theory, principles for capital adequacy, and practical statistical challenges in market risk. A numerical study illustrates the approach, focusing on expected shortfall estimation under both i.i.d. and overlapping samples relevant for regulatory FRTB model applications.

Page Count
27 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Risk Management