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Chronologically Consistent Generative AI

Published: October 13, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2510.11677v1

By: Songrun He , Linying Lv , Asaf Manela and more

Potential Business Impact:

AI predicts future without cheating.

Business Areas:
Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence, Data and Analytics, Software

We introduce a family of chronologically consistent, instruction-following large language models to eliminate lookahead bias. Each model is trained only on data available before a clearly defined knowledge-cutoff date, ensuring strict temporal separation from any post-cutoff data. The resulting framework offers (i) a simple, conversational chat interface, (ii) fully open, fixed model weights that guarantee replicability, and (iii) a conservative lower bound on forecast accuracy, isolating the share of predictability that survives once training leakage is removed. Together, these features provide researchers with an easy-to-use generative AI tool useful for a wide range of prediction tasks that is free of lookahead bias.

Country of Origin
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States

Repos / Data Links

Page Count
21 pages

Category
Computer Science:
Machine Learning (CS)