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Robust extrapolation problem for random processes with stationary increments

Published: October 15, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2510.14003v1

By: Maksym Luz, Mikhail Moklyachuk

Potential Business Impact:

Finds best guesses from past data.

Business Areas:
A/B Testing Data and Analytics

The problem of optimal estimation of linear functionals $A {\xi}=\int_{0}^{\infty} a(t)\xi(t)dt$ and $A_T{\xi}=\int_{0}^{T} a(t)\xi(t)dt$ depending on the unknown values of random process $\xi(t)$, $t\in R$, with stationary $n$th increments from observations of ttis process for $t<0$ is considered. Formulas for calculating mean square error and spectral characteristic of optimal linear estimation of the functionals are proposed in the case when spectral density is exactly known. Formulas that determine the least favorable spectral densities are proposed for given sets of admissible spectral densities.

Page Count
11 pages

Category
Mathematics:
Statistics Theory