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Estimation in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes: a Bayesian approach

Published: October 28, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2510.24182v1

By: Judith Rousseau, Vincent Rivoirard, Déborah Sulem

Potential Business Impact:

Helps predict when events will happen next.

Business Areas:
A/B Testing Data and Analytics

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller than the dimension. We consider two types of loss function: the empirical $L_1$ distance between the intensity functions of the process and the $L_1$ norm on the parameters (background rates and interaction functions). Our results are the first results to control the $L_1$ norm on the parameters under such a framework. They are also the first results to study Bayesian procedures in high dimensional Hawkes processes.

Country of Origin
🇨🇭 🇫🇷 France, Switzerland

Page Count
19 pages

Category
Mathematics:
Statistics Theory