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Multifractality and sample size influence on Bitcoin volatility patterns

Published: November 5, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2511.03314v1

By: Tetsuya Takaishi

Potential Business Impact:

Makes Bitcoin price changes easier to predict.

Business Areas:
Bitcoin Financial Services, Payments, Software

The finite sample effect on the Hurst exponent (HE) of realized volatility time series is examined using Bitcoin data. This study finds that the HE decreases as the sampling period $\Delta$ increases and a simple finite sample ansatz closely fits the HE data. We obtain values of the HE as $\Delta \rightarrow 0$, which are smaller than 1/2, indicating rough volatility. The relative error is found to be $1\%$ for the widely used five-minute realized volatility. Performing a multifractal analysis, we find the multifractality in the realized volatility time series, smaller than that of the price-return time series.

Country of Origin
🇯🇵 Japan

Page Count
15 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Statistical Finance