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Data-driven Feynman-Kac Discovery with Applications to Prediction and Data Generation

Published: November 5, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2511.08606v1

By: Qi Feng , Guang Lin , Purav Matlia and more

Potential Business Impact:

Finds hidden money rules from stock prices.

Business Areas:
Predictive Analytics Artificial Intelligence, Data and Analytics, Software

In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven framework for discovering probabilistic laws underlying the Feynman-Kac formula. Specifically, we introduce the first stochastic SINDy method formulated under the risk-neutral probability measure to recover the backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) from a single pair of stock and option trajectories. Unlike existing approaches to identifying stochastic differential equations-which typically require ergodicity-our framework leverages the risk-neutral measure, thereby eliminating the ergodicity assumption and enabling BSDE recovery from limited financial time series data. Using this algorithm, we are able not only to make forward-looking predictions but also to generate new synthetic data paths consistent with the underlying probabilistic law.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 United States

Page Count
6 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Mathematical Finance