Designing Efficient Hybrid and Single-Arm Trials: External Control Borrowing and Sample Size Calculation
By: Yujing Gao, Xiang Zhang, Shu Yang
Potential Business Impact:
Tests new medicines with fewer people needed.
External controls (ECs) from historical clinical trials or real-world data have gained increasing attention as a way to augment hybrid and single-arm trials, especially when balanced randomization is infeasible. While most existing work has focused on post-trial inference using ECs, their role in prospective trial design remains less explored. We propose a unified experimental design framework that encompasses standard randomized controlled trials (RCTs), hybrid trials, and single-arm trials, focusing on sample size determination and power analysis. Building on estimators derived from the efficient influence function, we develop hybrid and single-arm design strategies that leverage comparable EC data to reduce the required sample size of the current study. We derive asymptotic variance expressions for these estimators in terms of interpretable, population-level quantities and introduce a pre-experimental variance estimation procedure to guide sample size calculation, ensuring prespecified type I error and power for the relevant hypothesis test. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed hybrid and single-arm designs maintain valid type I error and achieve target power across diverse scenarios while requiring substantially fewer subjects in the current study than RCT designs. A real data application further illustrates the practical utility and advantages of the proposed hybrid and single-arm designs.
Similar Papers
Adaptive Data-Borrowing for Improving Treatment Effect Estimation using External Controls
Methodology
Improves medical study results using outside data.
A Comparative Evaluation of Statistical Methods in Hybrid Controlled Trials
Methodology
Tests new drugs faster with fewer patients.
Selection Bias in Hybrid Randomized Controlled Trials using External Controls: A Simulation Study
Methodology
Makes medical tests more honest with old data.