Asymptotic confidence bands for centered purely random forests
By: Natalie Neumeyer, Jan Rabe, Mathias Trabs
Potential Business Impact:
Makes computer predictions more accurate and reliable.
In a multivariate nonparametric regression setting we construct explicit asymptotic uniform confidence bands for centered purely random forests. Since the most popular example in this class of random forests, namely the uniformly centered purely random forests, is well known to suffer from suboptimal rates, we propose a new type of purely random forests, called the Ehrenfest centered purely random forests, which achieve minimax optimal rates. Our main confidence band theorem applies to both random forests. The proof is based on an interpretation of random forests as generalized U-Statistics together with a Gaussian approximation of the supremum of empirical processes. Our theoretical findings are illustrated in simulation examples.
Similar Papers
Asymptotic confidence bands for the histogram regression estimator
Statistics Theory
Finds patterns in messy data with math.
Asymptotic Normality of Infinite Centered Random Forests -Application to Imbalanced Classification
Machine Learning (Stat)
Makes computer learning fair for rare events.
Empirical Likelihood for Random Forests and Ensembles
Machine Learning (Stat)
Quantifies computer predictions to show how sure they are.