Score: 3

IonCast: A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Ionospheric Dynamics

Published: November 19, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2511.15004v1

By: Halil S. Kelebek , Linnea M. Wolniewicz , Michael D. Vergalla and more

BigTech Affiliations: NASA

Potential Business Impact:

Predicts space weather to improve GPS and radio.

Business Areas:
Geospatial Data and Analytics, Navigation and Mapping

The ionosphere is a critical component of near-Earth space, shaping GNSS accuracy, high-frequency communications, and aviation operations. For these reasons, accurate forecasting and modeling of ionospheric variability has become increasingly relevant. To address this gap, we present IonCast, a suite of deep learning models that include a GraphCast-inspired model tailored for ionospheric dynamics. IonCast leverages spatiotemporal learning to forecast global Total Electron Content (TEC), integrating diverse physical drivers and observational datasets. Validating on held-out storm-time and quiet conditions highlights improved skill compared to persistence. By unifying heterogeneous data with scalable graph-based spatiotemporal learning, IonCast demonstrates how machine learning can augment physical understanding of ionospheric variability and advance operational space weather resilience.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇮🇹 United Kingdom, Italy, United States

Repos / Data Links

Page Count
11 pages

Category
Computer Science:
Machine Learning (CS)