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Quantum Fourier Transform Based Kernel for Solar Irrandiance Forecasting

Published: November 21, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2511.17698v1

By: Nawfel Mechiche-Alami , Eduardo Rodriguez , Jose M. Cardemil and more

Potential Business Impact:

Predicts future weather patterns with better accuracy.

Business Areas:
Quantum Computing Science and Engineering

This study proposes a Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT)-enhanced quantum kernel for short-term time-series forecasting. Each signal is windowed, amplitude-encoded, transformed by a QFT, then passed through a protective rotation layer to avoid the QFT/QFT adjoint cancellation; the resulting kernel is used in kernel ridge regression (KRR). Exogenous predictors are incorporated by convexly fusing feature-specific kernels. On multi-station solar irradiance data across Koppen climate classes, the proposed kernel consistently improves median R2 and nRMSE over reference classical RBF and polynomials kernels, while also reducing bias (nMBE); complementary MAE/ERMAX analyses indicate tighter average errors with remaining headroom under sharp transients. For both quantum and classical models, the only tuned quantities are the feature-mixing weights and the KRR ridge alpha; classical hyperparameters (gamma, r, d) are fixed, with the same validation set size for all models. Experiments are conducted on a noiseless simulator (5 qubits; window length L=32). Limitations and ablations are discussed, and paths toward NISQ execution are outlined.

Country of Origin
🇨🇱 🇨🇭 Switzerland, Chile

Page Count
33 pages

Category
Statistics:
Machine Learning (Stat)