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Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy

Published: November 26, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2511.21266v1

By: Lotta M. Meijerink , Artuur M. Leeuwenberg , Jungyeon Choi and more

Potential Business Impact:

Predicts how well new treatments work.

Business Areas:
Clinical Trials Health Care

Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing observed outcomes under a new treatment with predicted outcomes had these patients received the standard treatment. This article clarifies the relevant conditions needed for valid average treatment effect estimation using this approach, using the potential outcomes framework and a practical case study.

Page Count
13 pages

Category
Statistics:
Methodology