A novel method to analyze pattern shifts in rainfall using cluster analysis and probability models

: One of the prominent challenges being faced by agricultural sciences is the onset of climate change which is adversely affecting every aspect of cropping. Modelling of climate change at macro level have been carried out at large scale and there is ample amount of research publications available for that. But at micro level like at state level or district level there are lesser studies. District level studies can help in preparing specific plans for the mitigation of adverse effects of climate change at local level. An attempt has been made in this paper to model the monthly rainfall of Varanasi district of the state of Uttar Pradesh with the help of probability models. Firstly, the pattern of the climate change over 122 years has been unveiled by using exploratory analysis and using multivariate techniques like cluster analysis and then probability models have been fitted for selected months