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The future of AI in critical mineral exploration

Published: December 2, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2512.02879v1

By: Jef Caers

BigTech Affiliations: Stanford University

Potential Business Impact:

AI finds hidden minerals faster and cheaper.

Business Areas:
Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence, Data and Analytics, Science and Engineering, Software

The energy transition through increased electrification has put the worlds attention on critical mineral exploration Even with increased investments a decrease in new discoveries has taken place over the last two decades Here I propose a solution to this problem where AI is implemented as the enabler of a rigorous scientific method for mineral exploration that aims to reduce cognitive bias and false positives drive down the cost of exploration I propose a new scientific method that is based on a philosophical approach founded on the principles of Bayesianism and falsification In this approach data acquisition is in the first place seen as a means to falsify human generated hypothesis Decision of what data to acquire next is quantified with verifiable metrics and based on rational decision making A practical protocol is provided that can be used as a template in any exploration campaign However in order to make this protocol practical various form of artificial intelligence are needed I will argue that the most important form are one novel unsupervised learning methods that collaborate with domain experts to better understand data and generate multiple competing geological hypotheses and two humanintheloop AI algorithms that can optimally plan various geological geophysical geochemical and drilling data acquisition where uncertainty reduction of geological hypothesis precedes the uncertainty reduction on grade and tonnage

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 United States

Page Count
26 pages

Category
Computer Science:
Artificial Intelligence