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Change Point Detection for Functional Autoregressive Processes on the Sphere

Published: December 2, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2512.03255v1

By: Federica Spoto, Alessia Caponera, Pierpaolo Brutti

Potential Business Impact:

Finds changes in weather patterns on Earth.

Business Areas:
Smart Cities Real Estate

We introduce a novel framework for change point detection in spherical functional autoregressive (SPHAR) processes, enabling the identification of structural breaks in spatio-temporal random fields on the sphere. Our LASSO-regularized estimator, based on penalized dynamic programming in the harmonic domain, operates without knowledge of the number or locations of change points and offers non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees. This approach provides a new tool for analyzing nonstationary phenomena on the sphere, relevant to climate science, cosmology, and beyond.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 🇮🇹 Italy, United States

Page Count
47 pages

Category
Statistics:
Methodology