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Coordinated Mean-Field Control for Systemic Risk

Published: December 4, 2025 | arXiv ID: 2512.04704v1

By: Toshiaki Yamanaka

BigTech Affiliations: Johns Hopkins University

Potential Business Impact:

Helps banks manage money risks better.

Business Areas:
Risk Management Professional Services

We develop a robust linear-quadratic mean-field control framework for systemic risk under model uncertainty, in which a central bank jointly optimizes interest rate policy and supervisory monitoring intensity against adversarial distortions. Our model features multiple policy instruments with interactive dynamics, implemented via a variance weight that depends on the policy rate, generating coupling effects absent in single-instrument models. We establish viscosity solutions for the associated HJB--Isaacs equation, prove uniqueness via comparison principles, and provide verification theorems. The linear-quadratic structure yields explicit feedback controls derived from a coupled Riccati system, preserving analytical tractability despite adversarial uncertainty. Simulations reveal distinct loss-of-control regimes driven by robustness-breakdown and control saturation, alongside a pronounced asymmetry in sensitivity between the mean and variance channels. These findings demonstrate the importance of instrument complementarity in systemic risk modeling and control.

Country of Origin
🇺🇸 United States

Page Count
39 pages

Category
Mathematics:
Optimization and Control