Differential ML with a Difference
By: Paul Glasserman, Siddharth Hemant Karmarkar
Potential Business Impact:
Helps computers price tricky financial bets better.
Differential ML (Huge and Savine 2020) is a technique for training neural networks to provide fast approximations to complex simulation-based models for derivatives pricing and risk management. It uses price sensitivities calculated through pathwise adjoint differentiation to reduce pricing and hedging errors. However, for options with discontinuous payoffs, such as digital or barrier options, the pathwise sensitivities are biased, and incorporating them into the loss function can magnify errors. We consider alternative methods for estimating sensitivities and find that they can substantially reduce test errors in prices and in their sensitivities. Using differential labels calculated through the likelihood ratio method expands the scope of Differential ML to discontinuous payoffs. A hybrid method incorporates gamma estimates as well as delta estimates, providing further regularization.
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