Deadline-Chasing in Digital Health: Modeling EMR Adoption Dynamics and Regulatory Impact in Indonesian Primary Care

Indonesia digital healthcare transformation is accelerating under Minister of Health Regulation Number 24 of 2022, which mandates the adoption of Electronic Medical Records EMR and integration with the SATUSEHAT platform. However, empirical evidence regarding the factors, trajectory and speed of adoption in Primary Health Facilities FKTP remains limited. This study aims to evaluate the level and rate of EMR adoption within the customer network of a major EMR system provider PT MTK and model short-term projections. This is an observational study with the main variables being cumulative registered EMR facilities, monthly registration flow, same-month activation, same-month inactivation, and the estimated number of eligible FKTPs nationally monthly known as eligible facilities. The analysis uses descriptive analysis, logistic growth modeling, and ARIMA forecasting. The results of the study over 33 months showed that cumulative registered facilities increased from 2 to 3,533, with a median same-month activation rate of 0.889 IQR 0.717 to 0.992. The proportion of final adoption compared to eligible facilities was 8.9 percent 3,533 of 39,852. The ARIMA model projects a cumulative approximately 3,997 clinics 95 percent CI 3,697 to 4,298 by June 2025. The estimated growth in logistics converges with a carrying capacity of 4.1 thousand facilities. The study findings reveal that EMR adoption within the customer network of EMR system providers is showing steady growth with rapid activation in the month of registration. Although the cumulative series showed no major departures from the long-term trend, localized step-ups around deadlines suggest deadline chasing, so impact should be maximized by aligning interventions to the deadline calendar. Given the trajectory, total market share of FKTP for PT MTK remains less than 10 percent at the end of 2024, but continues to increase in 2025.