Natural Geometry of Robust Data Attribution: From Convex Models to Deep Networks

Data attribution methods identify which training examples are responsible for a model's predictions, but their sensitivity to distributional perturbations undermines practical reliability. We present a unified framework for certified robust attribution that extends from convex models to deep networks. For convex settings, we derive Wasserstein-Robust Influence Functions (W-RIF) with provable coverage guarantees. For deep networks, we demonstrate that Euclidean certification is rendered vacuous by spectral amplification -- a mechanism where the inherent ill-conditioning of deep representations inflates Lipschitz bounds by over $10{,}000\times$. This explains why standard TRAK scores, while accurate point estimates, are geometrically fragile: naive Euclidean robustness analysis yields 0\% certification. Our key contribution is the Natural Wasserstein metric, which measures perturbations in the geometry induced by the model's own feature covariance. This eliminates spectral amplification, reducing worst-case sensitivity by $76\times$ and stabilizing attribution estimates. On CIFAR-10 with ResNet-18, Natural W-TRAK certifies 68.7\% of ranking pairs compared to 0\% for Euclidean baselines -- to our knowledge, the first non-vacuous certified bounds for neural network attribution. Furthermore, we prove that the Self-Influence term arising from our analysis equals the Lipschitz constant governing attribution stability, providing theoretical grounding for leverage-based anomaly detection. Empirically, Self-Influence achieves 0.970 AUROC for label noise detection, identifying 94.1\% of corrupted labels by examining just the top 20\% of training data.