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Trading with market resistance and concave price impact

Published: January 6, 2026 | arXiv ID: 2601.03215v1

By: Youssef Ouazzani Chahdi, Nathan De Carvalho, Grégoire Szymanski

Potential Business Impact:

Helps traders make more money by predicting market moves.

Business Areas:
Prediction Markets Financial Services

We consider an optimal trading problem under a market impact model with endogenous market resistance generated by a sophisticated trader who (partially) detects metaorders and trades against them to exploit price overreactions induced by the order flow. The model features a concave transient impact driven by a power-law propagator with a resistance term responding to the trader's rate via a fixed-point equation involving a general resistance function. We derive a (non)linear stochastic Fredholm equation as the first-order optimality condition satisfied by optimal trading strategies. Existence and uniqueness of the optimal control are established when the resistance function is linear, and an existence result is obtained when it is strictly convex using coercivity and weak lower semicontinuity of the associated profit-and-loss functional. We also propose an iterative scheme to solve the nonlinear stochastic Fredholm equation and prove an exponential convergence rate. Numerical experiments confirm this behavior and illustrate optimal round-trip strategies under "buy" signals with various decay profiles and different market resistance specifications.

Country of Origin
🇫🇷 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, France

Page Count
44 pages

Category
Quantitative Finance:
Trading & Market Microstructure