Score: 1

A complete characterization of testable hypotheses

Published: January 8, 2026 | arXiv ID: 2601.05217v1

By: Martin Larsson, Johannes Ruf, Aaditya Ramdas

Potential Business Impact:

Finds if one set of guesses is better than another.

Business Areas:
A/B Testing Data and Analytics

We revisit a fundamental question in hypothesis testing: given two sets of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and $\mathcal{Q}$, when does a nontrivial (i.e.\ strictly unbiased) test for $\mathcal{P}$ against $\mathcal{Q}$ exist? Le~Cam showed that, when $\mathcal{P}$ and $\mathcal{Q}$ have a common dominating measure, a test that has power exceeding its level by more than $\varepsilon$ exists if and only if the convex hulls of $\mathcal{P}$ and $\mathcal{Q}$ are separated in total variation distance by more than $\varepsilon$. The requirement of a dominating measure is frequently violated in nonparametric statistics. In a passing remark, Le~Cam described an approach to address more general scenarios, but he stopped short of stating a formal theorem. This work completes Le~Cam's program, by presenting a matching necessary and sufficient condition for testability: for the aforementioned theorem to hold without assumptions, one must take the closures of the convex hulls of $\mathcal{P}$ and $\mathcal{Q}$ in the space of bounded finitely additive measures. We provide simple elucidating examples, and elaborate on various subtle measure theoretic and topological points regarding compactness and achievability.

Country of Origin
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ United Kingdom, United States

Page Count
28 pages

Category
Mathematics:
Statistics Theory